OncologyUpdate On Swine Influenza, Wales
I want to update Members on the swine flu outbreak and how preparations in Wales are proceeding.
The WHO"s pandemic flu alert level remains at phase 5 which reflects widespread human to human transmission and that a pandemic may be imminent. It remains the case that the outbreak seems to have caused a less severe illness outside of Mexico, but there are now more reported cases in the United States than in Mexico.
The latest indications are that more than five thousand cases of influenza A (H1N1) - including 61 deaths - have been reported in 30 countries worldwide.
As at 5pm yesterday, there were 68 confirmed cases in the UK which is an increase from the 28 I reported on last week. There are still no confirmed cases in Wales.
The situation is continuously changing. In Wales 71 cases have been ruled out, leaving 9 still under investigation. All these patients are related to travel in Mexico and the USA. All are displaying, or have displayed, mild symptoms.
I reiterate that this remains a serious situation and we will see cases in Wales soon as they have been identified across English regions and in Scotland. Even with the best available scientific advice at our disposal, it is impossible to predict how the virus might develop over the coming months.
The current UK approach is still containment using school closures when appropriate and antivirals for contacts of cases in order to slow or minimise spread. We remain vigilant however and are prepared for a further phase where containment is no longer possible. We would then move into a mitigation strategy. This is most likely to happen when there is sustained community transmission, with cases in people with no link with travel to Mexico or the USA. At that point, the four countries would need to take a view on how best to use our stock of antivirals to treat the illness. Such a measure would only be considered if there was clear evidence of sustained transmission within communities and on the advice of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE), the Health Protection Agency and National Public Health Service.
I informed members last week that we are increasing our stockpiles of antivirals with the aim of covering 80% of the population, and of antibiotics, to provide courses of treatment for 30% of the population. Considerable progress has also been made within the NHS to identify suitable collection points from where antivirals could be collected on behalf of patients with flu.
To ensure we are able to distribute antivirals effectively, we are working to get the National Flu Service up and ready to run when needed.
Last week, Darren Millar asked me about the expiry dates for antiviral stock in Wales. The expiry dates for Tamiflu, Oseltamivir and Relenza, range from May 2010 to December 2013. The important news is that European regulatory authorities have extended the expiry dates of antivirals by two years to ensure none are thrown away when they may be needed in a pandemic. Statutory instruments were also laid before Parliament last week to make the necessary changes to support interim arrangements so that people can access antiviral drugs quickly should they require them.
An additional 227 million surgical facemasks and 34 million respirators have been ordered on a UK basis, which if used properly will prevent transmission to NHS staff in close and frequent contact with patients. We have agreed, across the four countries, to accelerate procurement to ensure that our front line health and social care staff are protected during a pandemic.
In respect of vaccines, UK agreements are in place with manufacturers to secure supplies of pandemic vaccines as soon as they are developed and produced but this is likely to take a few months. An important development is that British scientists have identified the genetic fingerprint of the virus"s European strain, which is a crucial step in the production of a vaccine. We will be looking to procure an H1N1 vaccine as soon as one becomes available. The normal seasonal flu vaccine will continue to be produced as it will still be useful for protecting high risk people from the other common circulating viruses.
It remains vital that the public are kept informed of developments and particularly of the steps they can take to protect themselves and family members. A mass public health campaign is now well underway and many of you will now have received the swine flu leaflet which is being delivered to all households in Wales this week. A further wave of advertising, including bilingual versions of these adverts, has appeared in the Welsh media and we are continuing to refine our communications messages to ensure that the public receive the most appropriate and timely information.
I would like to assure Members that I am continuing to work closely with my counterparts in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland to ensure a consistency of approach across the UK. Collaboration between the four countries remains excellent. We are doing everything we can to prepare against a pandemic situation.
I will continue to report weekly to the Assembly on these matters, and will keep Members informed if there are significant changes to the current situation.
Welsh Assembly Government
*See our Map Of H1N1 Outbreaks
*See our Mexico Swine Flu Blog